illusion of control

n. The illusion of control is an expectancy of personal success probability that is inappropriately higher than the objective probability would warrant. It is a phenomenon that is taken from the observer's perspective. From the actor's perspective it is not an illusion but rather a belief in the possibility of outcome control. The illusion of control is instigated in chance situations that superficially mimic skill or controllable situations. Thus, when factors such as choice, competition, familiarity, active involvement (practice), and passive involvement (thinking), which may increase control in skill-determined situations, are introduced into chance-determined tasks (such as lotteries, coin flipping, horse racing), we behave as if we can exert control over the outcome. If we believe that events are either controllable or uncontrollable, it is an illusion. If we believe events are either controllable or indeterminate, it may not be an illusion.

-EL